Thus far in the 2021 NFL campaign, a whopping 23 games have included winning scores in the last minute of regulation or overtime. Yep, that’s a record through the first six weeks of a season, per NFL Research. We’ve also seen 11 overtime games — tied for the second-most in league history during this time span.
Long story short: The league’s competitive parity is as strong as ever. Inherently, every single potential edge is crucial. Which leads us to the increasing trend of going for it on fourth down. More and more teams are keeping the offense on the field in these do-or-die spots, and they’re doing so earlier in games than we’ve seen before in the modern era.
Through the first six weeks of this season, 11 teams attempted at least 10 fourth-down conversions, with an average success rate of 52.2 percent. Many of these teams are not highly rated offenses, either, with the Giants (15th in total offense), Jaguars (16th), Lions (27th) and Dolphins (30th) among them. Ahead of this week’s Thursday Night Football game, Denver was the most successful team in this go-for-broke group, boasting a 75 percent conversion rate (9 for 12). And although the Broncos lost to the Browns on Thursday, 17-14, they did convert their lone fourth-down attempt.
I’d also like to call attention to another group of teams, ones that have led the way in this trend with exemplary results. Their decisions to go for it on fourth down typically either added the greatest percentage to their win chances (e.g., getting the first down that seals the game) OR didn’t harm their win chances (e.g., going on fourth down deep in enemy territory, with ample time left in the game and a lead/close deficit). These teams are the Chargers (8 for 12 on fourth down), Bengals (6 for 8), Panthers (5 for 7) and Cardinals (4 for 4). Remember, this includes fourth-down to-go distances that are greater than just 1 yard.
The teams that have been the least successful, with at least two fourth-down conversion attempts: The Eagles and Bears are both 2 for 9, while the Steelers (0 for 5), Seahawks (0 for 2), Buccaneers (2 for 5) and Chiefs (1 for 3) are similarly deficient. Now, those last two teams are interesting. Not only are Tampa Bay and Kansas City the reigning champions of their respective conferences, but they also field two of the highest-powered offenses in the game.
The Bucs, to be honest, haven’t really needed to leverage this so far, as evidenced by their 5-1 record and solid point differential of +51. However, if injuries keep mounting and Leonard Fournette continues to operate like a premier back, they could benefit from early strategic chances. The Chiefs are a different story …
At 3-3 with a point differential of just +9 and a league-high 14 turnovers, Kansas City could benefit greatly from fourth-down gains. The Chiefs are currently tied for 27th in total drives (at 57, with the Bears and Jets), but they’ve run the eighth-most plays (414) and have the highest average of first downs per game (27.5), ultimately meaning they are running more plays per drive. Meanwhile, their defense is struggling, giving up the most yards per play (6.71) and fifth-most points per game (29.3). Now, I expect Kansas City’s turnover rate will regress to the mean — especially if the Chiefs start operating with more of a go-for-it mindset on fourth down, lowering the urgency of third-down plays. And if you give K.C.’s offense every reasonable opportunity to overwhelm the opposing defense, opponents will be forced into one-dimensional attacks, thus making life easier on Kansas City’s suspect defense. To simplify: Keeping Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill on the field as much as possible is a winning game plan for Andy Reid.
