Remaining schedule:
With matchups at Lambeau and Heinz Field before their season finale at home vs. the Bengals, the Browns, who essentially must win out and get a lot of help from others to earn a spot, have the steepest road remaining. In my models, the Ravens fall to the Bengals this Sunday in 53.6% of simulations, an outcome Browns fans should be cheering for. If that happens, and the Browns are able to upset the Packers, Cleveland more than doubles its playoff chances (to 45.1%).
One way the Browns could surprise on Christmas Day is by bringing the heat. Aaron Rodgers has a 75.2-point drop in passer rating when under pressure vs. when he’s not, which is the largest differential in the NFL this season, per Next Gen Stats. Just look at the numbers:
- Under Pressure: 25 of 72, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 47.5 passer rating
- No pressure: 274 of 369, 28 TDs, 2 INTs, 122.7 passer rating
Now, Rodgers hasn’t faced much pressure over the course of the season, with his 21.2% rate being the fifth-lowest in the league. And the Browns as a whole only bring pressure at a 27% rate, which ranks 17th. So it’ll be up to DPOY-candidate Myles Garrett, who has generated 56 pressures on the year (fifth-most overall), to keep Rodgers uncomfortable all game long.
