It might seem safe to assume the Chiefs are better than their record, but anyone worried about the slow start can take heart in the analytics. Next Gen Stats flag Patrick Mahomes‘ performance when passing outside the numbers as an area due for regression — in a good way. On throws outside the numbers last season, Mahomes had a completion percentage of 67.6, logging 8.5 yards per attempt and 21 touchdowns with one interception. So far this season, he’s tracking at a 60 percent completion rate on such throws, earning 7.0 yards per attempt, with only one touchdown against one interception. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, meanwhile, is averaging 5.4 yards per rush against a light box this season, which is close to his average from 2020 (5.6). He forecasts to continue to face favorable circumstances, due to constant passing threats from his teammates.
As for Kansas City’s defense, lemme contextualize it this way: Let’s say through four games, the defense rates a 6 on a scale from 1 (being the worst) to 10 (being the best). Then consider that offenses compensating for lesser defenses end up doing more, meaning the chances of having a negative play increase. So far this season, Kansas City has been hurt by Mahomes interceptions (four) and Edwards-Helaire fumbles (two lost), but these are low-probability plays, based on Mahomes’ 1.0 percent interception rate in 2020 and Edwards-Helaire’s zero fumbles last season. The offense has a high probability of eliminating these negative plays, even if forced to pass more often. So if the defense can improve even by a marginal amount (say, jumping to a grade of 7 out of 10), that would pay great dividends, especially given Kansas City’s difficult schedule. The Chiefs make the playoffs in 83.6 percent of simulations.
