The Premier League is currently suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic and we don’t know when it will start again.
All professional football in England is postponed until at least April 30 but this date will inevitably be pushed back.
Euro 2020 has been delayed by 12 months to allow domestic competitions to be completed, so we are hoping that this season can be concluded at some point in the near future.
The Premier League stopped with Liverpool agonisingly close to winning their first league title in 30 years.
They need just two wins from their final nine games of the season, which seems a likely scenario seeing as they have won 27 of their 29 games so far, having also drawn one and lost one.
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It’s at the foot of the table where things are tight with Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth in the relegation zone with Watford, West Ham and Brighton all also in the fight to avoid the drop.
With the break in football for the foreseeable future, Opta have crunched the numbers to simulate how the rest of the season will pan out.
To do this they have:
- An estimation of each match outcome based off each team’s attacking and defensive quality
- Those qualities are based on four years of historic restyle but more weighting is given to more recent games.
- It also takes into account the quality of opposition that a team scores or concedes against and rewards them accordingly.
- They used goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs.
- The simulation was run 10,000 times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
So the results, unsurprisingly, showed that Liverpool clinched the title with 101 points with Man City in second place on 80.
If it’s any consolation to City fans, that tally would have been enough to win the title on six different occasions.
The top four was rounded off by Leicester and Chelsea, with 67 and 63 points respectively, so now change from the table now then.
Manchester United, who have been rejuvenated since Bruno Fernandes joined, were able to close the gap on the Blues but finished fifth on 61 points.
Things start to get tight then with Tottenham, Wolves, Arsenal and Sheffield United all separated by just three points.
At the foot of the table, the three currently at the bottom were all relegated. Watford (36), Brighton (37) and West Ham (39) all managed to survive without reaching the 40 point benchmark.
