In fact, the 49ers made the trade so they could do deep dives on Lance and Fields and be confident of getting either, if that’s where the evaluation process took them. Jones was considered a safety net, if you will, someone they could win a title with but not necessarily a transcendent talent, because he lacks the mobility to consistently turn off-schedule plays into something positive. Jones had the higher floor, but Lance and Fields were thought to have the higher ceilings, which is important because of how the league is progressing.
There is danger if an offense or defense becomes stagnant or predictable. Lynch learned this during his playing days in Tampa, where the team’s Cover 2 system lost some of what made it special when more clubs began running the same defense and poaching players from the Bucs. The unit was still effective, but opponents got a better feel for it the more they saw it on tape.
For Shanahan, concepts derived from his offense are becoming more prevalent as friends and past associates — think Sean McVay in Los Angeles and Matt LaFleur in Green Bay — utilize them in their play calls and play design. By drafting Lance, Shanahan will be able to expand his playbook and utilize Lance’s ability as a runner as well as a passer. Teams will have to play 11-on-11 instead of 11-on-10, because they’ll be forced to account for the quarterback in the run game.
That’s why Shanahan and Lynch sat back and watched with curiosity as outsiders made it appear as if Jones to San Francisco was a fait accompli. They didn’t attempt to change the narrative, because there was no point. Even if Jones were their guy in the end, what would be gained by showing their cards?
While the end result took center stage Thursday night, what transpired behind the curtain is equally compelling, because it means the sand will soon run out on incumbent QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s time with the team. He has this year and next remaining on the $137.5 million contract he signed in February of 2018, at just over $24 million per season, and he is regarded as a talent, having helped the 49ers reach the Super Bowl two seasons ago. But the most important ability of any player is availability; in comments to reporters earlier this week, Shanahan acknowledged “it’s been very tough for us when [Garoppolo has] been hurt.” The 49ers were unwilling to hold their breath that Garoppolo could be counted on physically.
He has played only one full season in three full seasons since being acquired in a trade with New England in October of 2017. In 2018, Garoppolo missed 13 games due to injury, and last season, he missed 10 more. The 49ers simply did not feel it was smart to bet against history, particularly knowing an extension for Garoppolo beyond 2022 could ultimately cost them in the neighborhood of $40 million annually. They looked at how the Seahawks were able to build out their team and reach two Super Bowls with quarterback Russell Wilson on a rookie deal; how the Rams were able to supplement their roster and reach a Super Bowl with QB Jared Goff on a rookie contract; and how the Cardinals have been able to rebuild more quickly with signal-caller Kyler Murray on a rookie deal.
With Lance on a rookie contract, the team, conservatively speaking, can save $150 million against the cap over the next five years, presuming San Francisco moves on from Garoppolo after the 2021 season — a reality that would not be possible if it had Garoppolo on an extension. The significance is that it allows the 49ers to more comfortably sign defensive pillars Fred Warner (the linebacker’s rookie contract runs out after this season) and Nick Bosa (the pass rusher can be kept on his rookie contract through 2023) to extensions, as well as make strategic strikes in free agency.
And yet, the trade could not have happened if not for York having complete trust in Shanahan and Lynch to make the right call. That’s an important element in the story. Some executives make bold deals out of fear, others out of desperation. But this one came from a place of trust.
