The pass-first NFL is filled with dynamite quarterbacks who populate the league’s plentiful advertisements due to their ability to produce points. They’re all brand names: Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson. The list goes on and on.
But these guys aren’t throwing the ball to themselves. Every passer needs a receiver to complete this majestic process — and that chemistry is what we’re here to study today.
Who are the NFL’s best pitch-and-catch combos right now?
With the help of Next Gen Stats, we’re sorting through these pairings to compile a list of the league’s premier connections. The stats can tell us a lot about the ability of these duos, perhaps more than any other examination.
A few things jumped out from the numbers: Kyler Murray has been excellent at exceeding expectation when targeting his receivers. He’s over +13 percent when targeting A.J. Green and Christian Kirk, and stands at +8.5 percent when throwing in DeAndre Hopkins‘ direction. In fact, no quarterback popped up more near the top of this list than Murray, so it’s no surprise the Cardinals remain undefeated.
Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill have been productive in terms of total yards (608), but the Chiefs quarterback has also gone to Hill more than anyone on this list except for the Matthew Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp and Aaron Rodgers-to-Davante Adams connections.
In an attempt to compile the best possible ranking here, we’re also relying on total expected points added, which helps measure both how productive a pairing is and how efficient it has been. That’s why combinations like Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith don’t make the list, as they currently own a -4.7 total EPA.
Then again, it’s not just about the numbers. Rodgers and Adams don’t have an extremely high total EPA through seven weeks, but we’d be foolish to leave that pairing off the list. The tape speaks for itself.
Alright, enough preamble. Here are the NFL’s top 10 passing duos through seven weeks of the 2021 season.
