Three of 14 N.F.L. postseason slots remain unclaimed heading into the final weekend of regular-season games.
In the A.F.C., five teams — the Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chargers and Raiders — are vying for two playoff spots, and the No. 1 seed remains open, a contest mostly between the Titans and the Chiefs.
In the N.F.C., the Packers have clinched the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. The last N.F.C. spot in the playoffs will go to the Saints or the 49ers.
As the games unfold, the various scenarios could get quite confusing, even for the people trying to explain them to you live on television. So we created these charts that map the playoff paths that remain for each team. They list all the ways a team can make the playoffs — or be eliminated from them. The tree diagrams start with a given team and then list the potential outcomes of the games that might matter to them, in chronological order from left to right.
We’ll update them throughout the weekend, and they’ll all link back to our interactive playoff simulator, which lets you explore any scenario.
One note: The text does not account for ties. But we have included a button with each tree if you’d like to explore how ties affect each team’s playoff path.
AFC East
Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 7
The Bills are in the playoffs but need a win to guarantee their second consecutive division title and home-field advantage in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Luckily for them, they face the 4-12 Jets. If the Bills win, they win the division and can finish as high as the No. 2 seed. If they lose, they could fall all the way to No. 7 as the last A.F.C. team in the playoffs, visiting the No. 2 seed.
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Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 7
The Patriots have clinched a playoff berth. They can win the A.F.C. East, but only if the Jets don’t lose to the Bills. Otherwise they’d be a wild-card team — as the fifth, sixth or seventh seed — depending on the outcome of the other games. They face the Dolphins, who were eliminated from postseason contention last week. The Patriots can still get the No. 1 seed, but they’d need to win and have three other games go their way, so don’t cross your fingers.
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AFC North
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
The Bengals have won the A.F.C. North and have clinched a playoff berth. Their best-case scenario is gaining the No. 1 seed, which could happen only if the Bengals win and the Chiefs and the Titans both lose (and the Bengals would still need another game to fall their way, in the form of a Bills win or Patriots loss).
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Best possible outcome: No. 7
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Steelers’ chances are slim: They must win and hope the Colts lose to the Jaguars. If that happens, the Steelers will be the No. 7 seed, the last team in the A.F.C. playoffs. (In the extremely unlikely event of a Jaguars win and a Chargers-Raiders tie, however, the Steelers will be eliminated.)
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Best possible outcome: No. 7
Worst possible outcome: Out
As with the Steelers, the Ravens’ postseason hopes depend on a victory and an unlikely win by the Jaguars over the Colts. But they would need more help yet, in the form of a Patriots win and a Raiders win. These things could happen, making the Ravens the No. 7 seed, but it’s much more likely that they’ll be eliminated whether or not they beat the Steelers on Sunday.
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AFC South
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
With the Chiefs’ loss to the Bengals in Week 17, the Titans now share the best record in the A.F.C., and the No. 1 seed is theirs to lose. If they beat the Texans on Sunday, they will clinch the No. 1 seed, with a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They can also afford to lose their game if the Chiefs lose to the Broncos on Saturday night, but they’d need the Bengals to lose, along with a Bills win or Patriots loss.
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Best possible outcome: No. 5
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Colts are a likely wild-card team as the No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7 seed. All they need to do is not lose to the Jaguars, one of the worst teams in the N.F.L. (and a team with incentives of its own — the Jaguars would gain the 2022 No. 1 draft pick with a loss). If the Colts lose, they’re probably out, but they could squeeze in if the Steelers, Patriots and Chargers all lose.
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AFC West
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
The Chiefs are no longer the top team in the A.F.C. — that distinction now belongs to the Titans. A bye week remains possible for the Chiefs; they need a win and a Titans loss. Otherwise, the Chiefs will most likely be the No. 2 seed, hosting the No. 7 seed in the first round of the playoffs.
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Best possible outcome: No. 5
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Chargers must win or tie on Sunday to clinch a playoff berth. If they lose, they are eliminated. They face the Raiders, who are in a nearly identical position.
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Best possible outcome: No. 5
Worst possible outcome: Out
Like the Colts, Ravens and Chargers, the Raiders must win to clinch a playoff berth. They could also lose and slip into the No. 7 seed, but that would require, among other things, a Jaguars victory, an event that has not occurred in two months.
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NFC East
Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
The Cowboys have won the N.F.C. East and will probably host the No. 5 seed as the No. 4 seed. Their Week 18 opponents, the Eagles, have also clinched a playoff berth, as a wild-card team, regardless of the game’s outcome.
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Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: No. 7
The Eagles will be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Their opponents, the Cowboys, also have relatively little to play for. There’s a slim chance the Eagles and the Cowboys will meet in the playoffs the following week.
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NFC North
The Packers have clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their game against the Lions is essentially meaningless for them. (The Lions are still in contention to get the No. 1 pick in the draft, however. If they lose and the Jaguars win, the Lions will own the N.F.L.’s worst record.)
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NFC South
Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
The Bucs are in the playoffs, either as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed if they win, or as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed if they lose.
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Best possible outcome: No. 7
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Saints need a victory and help: Their only path to the playoffs is if they win and the 49ers lose to the Rams.
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NFC West
Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 5
The Rams have clinched a postseason berth, but can go as high as No. 2 or fall as low as No. 5 depending on the outcome of the weekend’s games. A win clinches a division title and home-field advantage for at least the first two playoff games.
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Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 5
Like the Rams, the Cardinals are in the postseason and have a chance to win the division on Sunday. For that to happen, they must beat the Seahawks and hope the Rams lose. Otherwise, they would be a wild-card team and the No. 5 seed, visiting the No. 4 seed — most likely the Cowboys — in the first round of the playoffs.
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