Texas A&M opened as a six-point home favorite against Auburn.
The market has drifted toward the Tigers a bit, as the number sits at Texas A&M -4.5 as of Tuesday morning.
That’s a welcome development as far as I’m concerned. I think there may be value on Texas A&M as a betting favorite.
Tough matchup for Auburn passing game
Give credit to Bo Nix as well as Bryan Harsin. Auburn hired the former Boise State coach in part because of his track record developing quarterbacks.
Nix’s stats may not do him justice. He’s played good football this season. But for large portions of the year, his receivers have let him down.
Pro Football Focus grades Auburn’s quarterbacks at 26th but Auburn’s receivers at 77th. As a result, Auburn’s pass offense is 78th in EPA per snap.
PFF grades Texas A&M at 22nd in coverage. The Aggies pass defense is seventh in EPA per snap and seventh in ESPN’s SP+ in overall defense.
Look closer at Auburn’s passing game against Power 5 opponents.
According to SP+, the LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss defenses rank 55th on average. Against those mediocre units, Bo Nix completed 66 percent of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt, four touchdowns and one interception. Auburn won all three of those games.
Against Penn State (SP+ No. 5) and Georgia (SP+ No. 1), Nix completed 56 percent of his passes for 5.4 yards per attempt, no touchdowns and one interception. As a unit, Texas A&M’s defense is nearly equal to Penn State’s.
Auburn needs to run the ball effectively
Auburn’s offensive line is third in passing downs line yards and 18th in stuff rate. So the Tigers are good at running the ball on passing downs and good at avoiding tackles for loss.
Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter have an argument as the best running back tandem in the SEC. The duo has rushed for a combined 1,196 yards and 10 touchdowns on 6.2 yards per carry in addition to 19 receptions on 6.5 yards per catch.
Texas A&M’s run defense is 29th in EPA per snap and grades out at 54th according to Pro Football Focus. The Aggies have talent along the defensive line but are good, not great, against the run.
Auburn also ranks just 101st in power success rate. On obvious running downs, the Tigers aren’t good at getting a good push. That shouldn’t change against a talented roster stacked with strong recruiting classes.
Texas A&M may be able to contain Auburn’s passing game to the point where it can commit extra bodies to stop the run.
Nix may be the difference in whether Auburn is successful enough running the football to compete.
Including sacks, Nix ran for a combined 146 yards and four touchdowns against LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss. He managed just 13 yards on 16 carries and didn’t find the end zone against Penn State and Georgia.
Texas A&M’s offense improving by the week
Texas A&M’s offense hit a low point when starter Haynes King got hurt against Colorado. Zach Calzada appeared uncomfortab but managed a late touchdown to win 10-7.
After an unspectacular effort against a bad New Mexico team, the offense recorded its lowest grade of the season against Arkansas, according to Pro Football Focus (53.8).
In its next four games, the offense earned grades of 66.5, 74.6, 78.6 and 79.2. See a pattern there? The last three performances resulted in Texas A&M wins, including against Alabama.
The nearly new offensive line, maligned early in the season, has stabilized. That has allowed Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane to excel. The pair have rushed for 1,369 yards on 6.6 yards per carry.
In turn, that has taken pressure off Calzada. A sophomore, Calzada entered the season with 24 career college passes – all in mop-up duty against Group of 5 or FCS teams in 2019. Until getting thrown into action against the Buffaloes, he hadn’t thrown double-digit passes in a live game since high school in 2018.
No one is going to mistake Calzada for the second coming of Johnny Manziel. But in Texas A&M’s last three games, he’s thrown seven touchdown passes and taken just one sack. The Aggies scored 41, 35 and 44 points in those games.
Final analysis: Take Texas A&M -4.5
Jimbo Fisher operates a pro-style offense.
Bye weeks sometimes have a negative impact on timing offenses such as the Air Raid. But in this case, there’s a good chance that the bye only helped Calzada and especially the Aggies run game, Fisher’s specialty.
Last week, Auburn got to enjoy life as a home team coming off a bye. This week, it’s Texas A&M’s turn to do the same.
Last week, I called for Auburn to beat Ole Miss while covering the spread. The Tigers did so. But Auburn only outgained Ole Miss by 19 yards and finished with a minus-one turnover margin.
The Rebels punted just twice. But Lane Kiffin’s team settled for two field goals in the red zone and turned the ball over on downs three times in the second half, including twice inside the red zone.
Arkansas also outgained Auburn by 33 yards and earned nine more first downs, but finished 0 for 3 on fourth downs. Auburn scored a non-offensive touchdown and got touchdown passes of 39 and 71 yards in a game that from down-to-down was closer than the final score.
I think the betting market is overvaluing Auburn because the Tigers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games with some slightly misleading final scores.
I have Texas A&M as three points better on a neutral field. But given home-field advantage off a bye week and an advantageous matchup against Auburn’s offense, I think Texas A&M -4.5 is a good bet.
Christopher Smith specializes in handicapping college football and basketball. He founded Sports Locksmith to share his analysis.
