This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 23
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) posted another triple-double on Tuesday against Golden State and he is likely to do it again tonight against Oklahoma City. Over the last month, the Thunder have played at the third-fastest pace in the league while allowing the fourth-most points per 100 possessions. Westbrook has averaged 37.1 minutes per game over the last month, which is third most in the NBA. He is also averaging 13.9 rebounds per game over that time, which is more than every single player in the NBA not named Clint Capela or Rudy Gobert. Overall, he has produced 1.65 DraftKings points per minute in 17 games played with Bradley Beal active since the All-Star break. He is once again one of the best plays on the slate regardless of position.
Stephen Curry ($10,300 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) had a poor game in a great matchup against the Wizards his last time out, but he gets a shot at redemption tonight against the Nuggets. Denver has been the third-slowest team in the league over the last month so it’s not as strong a matchup, but we know that Curry can get hot against anyone. He doesn’t offer the peripherals that most other $10,000 players offer, which makes him risky since he is relatively scoring dependent. Still, he has a 34.1 percent usage rate and has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games played without James Wiseman and with Kelly Oubre this season.
Kyrie Irving ($10,100 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) will be playing without James Harden tonight. Kevin Durant is questionable, so there is a chance that Irving will be playing without both superstar teammates again. Irving has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games without Harden and with Durant. In six games without either player, Irving has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute. He has a high ceiling regardless of Durant’s status, but he is much more likely to justify his expensive price tag if Durant is unable to play.
John Wall ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) played 29.6 minutes in three quarters of a blowout loss against the Jazz on Wednesday. He will typically play 34 to 36 minutes in competitive games, but the Rockets are a terrible team that is frequently blown out. As a result, Wall has only averaged 32.3 minutes per game over the last month. He will have an increased role in Houston’s offense against an injured Clippers’ team tonight, however, as Kevin Porter Jr. will not be available. Wall has played 12 games with Christian Wood active without Harden, Victor Oladipo or Porter this season. In those games, Wall has produced 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.3 percent usage rate and 39.7 percent assist rate.
Ja Morant ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) faces a Portland team that has struggled defensively for most of the season. The Blazers are 24th in defensive rating over the last month, but they are also 21st in pace. Morant has averaged 33.3 minutes per game over the last month and he has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.2 percent usage rate and 36.5 percent assist rate in seven games without Jonas Valanciunas this season. By comparison, Morant has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.6 percent usage rate and 32.8 percent assist rate in 42 games played alongside Valanciunas. The increases in usage and assist rates are slight, but it makes sense that Valanciunas’ absence would increase Morant’s ceiling, per the Awesemo NBA daily fantasy basketball projections.
Armoni Brooks ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) started in place of Porter last game and played 34.7 minutes. He played the entire fourth quarter in garbage time, but he had also played about 13 first half minutes. Danuel House is expected to return to the rotation tonight so we may not see Brooks in the starting lineup again, but if he is, he should play at least 26 to 28 minutes from him at near minimum salary on DraftKings. He has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in seven games so far this season.
Brandon Goodwin ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is relatively expensive on FanDuel, but his price hasn’t been adjusted yet for Trae Young’s absence on DraftKings. Goodwin has started three games in place of Young this season. In those games, he played 28, 37 and 37 minutes and averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. Overall, Goodwin has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in five games played without Young this season. Assuming he starts, he is a clear top value option on DraftKings.
Raul Neto ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) has started Washington’s last two games in place of Rui Hachimura and he is likely to start again tonight with Hachimura and Deni Avdija both sidelined. Neto played about 28 minutes two games ago and about 36 minutes last game. He has played a total of 150 minutes alongside Beal and Westbrook and has only averaged 0.63 DraftKings points per minute so we should keep our expectations for his per-minute production in check, but there is value whenever a near minimum salary player is expected to play 30-plus minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Ja Morant, Brandon Goodwin, Raul Neto
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Ja Morant, Raul Neto
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Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) played 36.4 minutes against Golden State on Wednesday, giving him six straight games with at least 35 minutes played. It doesn’t appear that we need to be concerned with Beal’s hip anymore and we can obviously expect him to play 35 to 36 minutes a night. For the season, Beal has produced 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 34 percent usage rate in 43 games played alongside Westbrook.
Paul George ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) gets a great matchup against the Houston Rockets and he will be playing without Kawhi Leonard. George has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.5 percent usage rate and 28 percent assist rate in eight games without Leonard this season. He stands out as the top shooting guard option on tonight’s slate, but with that comes the chance of being one of the most popular plays, like our Awesemo NBA DFS ownership projections display.
Marcus Smart ($6,900 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in 139 minutes played without Jaylen Brown or Kemba Walker on the floor this season. Over those minutes, he has a 20.1 percent usage rate and 22.5 percent assist rate. Smart is likely to play 35 or 36 minutes tonight against Brooklyn. He is more expensive than I would like, but the shooting guard position isn’t particularly strong on this slate so he is a viable option.
Will Barton ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) faces the Golden State Warriors in a pace-up spot tonight. Golden State has played at the sixth-fastest pace over the last month. Barton has averaged 32.9 minutes per game and 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 10 games without Jamal Murray this season. Barton is easier to fit into lineups on DraftKings than FanDuel because he is $900 less expensive and has small forward eligibility in addition to shooting guard eligibility.
Lou Williams ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) is a risky option but he does offer upside with Young sidelined. Williams has played 30, 29 and 25 minutes in three games without Young since joining the Hawks. In those games, Williams has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.1 percent usage rate and 29.2 percent assist rate. Danilo Gallinari is questionable tonight, and if he is out, there should be more usage available for Williams with the second unit as well.
P.J. Dozier ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) played about 25 minutes against Portland last game and we can expect similar playing time tonight against Golden State. Dozier has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Murray active. There is risk in rostering Dozier since he is coming off the bench and could always play fewer minutes than he has been recently, but on average he should get another 24 to 25 minutes tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Paul George, Will Barton
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Paul George, Marcus Smart
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Small Forward
Michael Porter ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) only played about 31 minutes last game, but he has averaged 34.7 minutes per game in 10 games played without Murray this season. In those games, Porter has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.1 percent usage rate and 13.6 percent rebounding rate. Porter’s price tag is relatively expensive, but there isn’t much to like at the position tonight.
Kelly Oubre ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) played about 36 minutes off the bench last game and there are a lot of minutes available tonight against Denver. Damion Lee remains out for Golden State and he will be joined on the sidelines by Kent Bazemore, who started ahead of Oubre in the last two games and played 35.2 minutes against Washington. Juan Toscano-Anderson is questionable, but even if he returns, we should see Oubre play 30-plus minutes. Oubre has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in 45 games played with Curry this season.
Luguentz Dort ($6,800 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) is questionable to play in a great matchup against the Wizards tonight. While Washington has played very well defensively recently, ranking fifth in defensive rating over the last month, they have remained the fastest team in the league over that time as well. Dort has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.8 percent usage rate in 13 games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season and would be an especially strong option on FanDuel if he is able to play tonight.
Nicolas Batum ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) played about 26 minutes against Portland with Paul George active and Leonard inactive on Tuesday. Batum has averaged 27.6 minutes per game in eight total games with George and without Leonard. He has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute in those games and he has a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets. The issue for Batum is that he only has a 13.4 percent usage rate in those eight games, so it’s easy for him to disappear any given night.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kelly Oubre, Nicolas Batum
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Michael Porter, Luguentz Dort
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($10,000 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) will take on the Brooklyn Nets without Walker or Brown on the floor. Tatum has played a total of 513 minutes without either of them on the floor this season and he has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 35.8 percent usage rate and 23.4 percent assist rate over those minutes.
Draymond Green ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) benefits from Wiseman’s absence. He is relatively expensive, but he offers triple-double upside thanks to an excellent assist rate and increased rebounding rate without Wiseman. Green has produced 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over 33.4 minutes per game in 16 games without Wiseman and with Curry this season.
Marcus Morris ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) benefits from Leonard’s absence. Morris has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in five games alongside George without Leonard this season compared to 0.78 DraftKings points per minute when both stars are active. Morris played 31.5 minutes against Portland in this situation on Tuesday and we can expect another 30 to 32 minutes from him tonight.
Aaron Gordon ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is difficult to trust in DFS because his primary role on the Nuggets is to defend. We know that Gordon is capable of contributing fantasy points in a variety of categories, but the Nuggets don’t really need him to do so on a nightly basis. In 13 games with Denver, Gordon has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and 26.9 minutes per game. In eight games without Murray, he hasn’t seen increased playing time or production on average. Still, he is inexpensive for an up-tempo matchup where he is likely to play 28 to 30 minutes if the game is competitive. There is risk because of his role on the team, but there is also a relatively high ceiling at this price point given Gordon’s skill set.
Davis Bertans ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) has struggled to get into a rhythm this season as he has dealt with several injuries. He played 30 minutes against Golden State on Wednesday, however, which is the most minutes that he has played in a game since February 20th. With Avdija and Hachimura sidelined, it is likely that Bertans joins the starting lineup tonight. Even if he comes off the bench, he will most likely be in the closing lineup. Bertans has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season and offers some value here assuming he plays 30-plus minutes.
JaMychal Green ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is unlikely to play more than 18 to 20 minutes tonight, but he is capable of producing at a high rate over those minutes and he is near minimum salary on a slate that doesn’t have a ton of value available. Green has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute without Nikola Jokic on the floor this season. Assuming Jokic plays about 36 minutes and Green plays about 18 minutes, that would mean that we expect about 67 percent of Green’s minutes to come without Jokic tonight. He has averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute alongside Jokic and that should make up the remaining 33 percent of his playing time tonight. If more value opens up as we approach lock, Green will quickly lose his appeal. At the moment, however, he is a viable option that will allow us to pay up elsewhere.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Davis Bertans
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Aaron Gordon
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Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) had a disappointing game on Wednesday but those have been few and far between this season. In 10 games played without Murray, Jokic has now averaged 1.80 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 31.8 percent usage rate, 17.5 percent rebounding rate and 50.2 percent assist rate in those games. In those 10 games, Jokic has averaged 15.9 potential assists per 36 minutes compared to 13.9 potential assists per 36 minutes overall this season. Follow the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections and plug Jokic into as many of your lineups as you can.
Ivica Zubac ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) has started five games without Leonard and with George this season. In those five games, he has averaged 26.8 minutes per game and 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He has a fantastic matchup against Houston tonight and is likely to produce at an above-average rate.
Jusuf Nurkic ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has been unleashed! After sitting out two games ago, he returned to the Blazers’ lineup on Wednesday and played about 29 minutes against the Nuggets. Terry Stotts had said prior to the game that he would be limited to minutes in the upper twenties, which was weird because he had been playing 22 to 24 minutes in most games. Stotts was true to his word, however, and gave Nurkic his most minutes since January 13. Nurkic has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 20 games played with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum active this season and, according to Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections, he’s one of the best center values tonight.
Tristan Thompson ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) is far from exciting, but he should start with Robert Williams out again tonight. Thompson played 33.8 minutes against Phoenix last night and we can expect him to get at least 28 to 30 minutes tonight with room for more. Thompson has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in 35 starts this season.
Xavier Tillman ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,000 PF FanDuel) played 28.3 minutes against the Clippers on Wednesday as he started in place of Valanciunas. Tillman will most likely start again tonight against the Blazers and he has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and 26.8 minutes per game in nine starts this season. The primary concern for Tillman tonight is that Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both healthy. Jackson played 18 minutes on Wednesday, and he should be limited to similar minutes tonight. His presence lowers Tillman’s floor, however, because it is one more healthy frontcourt body that could potentially take minutes away. Tillman still has tournament upside, but I am more confident in similarly priced players like Zubac or Nurkic.
Daniel Gafford ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,300 PF FanDuel) played 24.1 minutes against Golden State last game. It remains to be seen if Scott Brooks is finally going to give Gafford the bulk of the minutes at center, but it is at least an encouraging sign. Gafford has been excellent since joining the Wizards. In nine games with Washington, Gafford has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.0 percent usage rate and 18.4 percent rebounding rate. For his career, Gafford has only averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute so it is unlikely that he continues to produce at the rate that he has since joining the Wizards. That said, he is a perfect fit with Russell Westbrook and I fully expect him to produce at a higher rate with Washington than he did with the Bulls. He is a risky option since his playing time is volatile, but he offers a massive ceiling for his price tag on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Ivica Zubac, Jusuf Nurkic
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Ivica Zubac, Jusuf Nurkic
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